Variation

The concept of variation in statistics is basic. Measure of central tendency and measure of dispersion both describes some quantitative data. In statistics, however, these measures only "describe" the characteristics of data but not demonstrate the cause and effect of it. Take variation for example, why is there such dispersion?

In my opinion, central tendency reflects the habits of human or inertia of nature, and variation reflects other causes of different performances of human or phenomenon of nature from the habits or inertia. Change of central tendency means chage of habits or inertia. Some variation leads to such changes due to its strengthened cause and effect operation.

一種過程

有時候會想，人的成長可分為一種過程的四個階段：弱後而唯諾，強勢與唯諾，民主而理性，強勢而理性。

A view of the world

There are many views of the world. View from the deterministic, the relative, etc.. One of them is the probability view. This world may be viewed from the deterministic point, but it is impossible to get the whole factors or principles that describe the cause and effect of this world. From the deterministic view, all we can do and shall do is to find the more "exact" or "real" principles that describe the world better. On doing this, we can still interpret this wolrd from another point of view - probability. We can describes the world better if we get more scenarios that affect events to happen. We can estimate the a priori probability if we find the cause and effect more detailed. The steps are, first, find the scenarios as more and complete to affect the events as we can. Second, estimate the probility. And third, base on the expected value to achieve the maxmimum utility. For example, we can do something better if we understand the concept of conditional probility. Some events happen more frequently under some conditions. If we take control of such conditions, we take more control of the events. Furthermore, if we understand and take control of the conditions of the preceding conditions, or we take control of the other conditions of the events, we take furthermore control of the events. Between the conditions and events, there are always something unknown, waiting to be discovered from the deterministic point of view.